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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the greatest upset.

But the latest race is distinctly different. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime underperformers improving in unison. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a typical year!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still