A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
