Keir Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.